I hope (though doubt) all these incubators gets blown up in the innevitable correction. We need a serious correction. 9984 can not get to 800k if folks keep rolling out publicly listed incubators and publicly listed business plans. All the Softbank wannabes may spoil the game, raising entry price for even incubated deals. We are simply talking about "share of wallet" as there are only so much money around and the more incubators there are, the less money there is to ramp our 9984.
I just met a guy a client wanted to recruit and he was trying to value himself and his pile of name cards on the basis of a startup company. We thought he was trying to be funny.
There are more and more publicly listed business plans with each passing day, some are "blind pools" under the guise of incubators.
Participate, but do not believe ... at all. Relevant anologies: Malaysia had to kill all pigs when a few got sick, Britain had to kill all cows, Hong Kong had to kill all chickens, pidgeons, ducks and geese, Australian gold mining investoras had to kill all gold mine shares, and NASDAQ investors may have to ...
New pigs, cows, chicken were incubated, and Aussie mining shares recovered some what, but plenty of previously animate organic leftovers dot the landscape.
A famous (try very famous) publicly listed China portal does an excellent job on their English language site and a laughable job on their Chinese language site. Has an army doing the clicks for pageview count and is operated by a PR type whose previous life was hanging out at the night clubs. The portal's investors are mostly not in Asia. The investment bankers are laughing about it all. I am not trying to be cryptic, I just am too busy for hassels.
Here could be a chain of event: Big shares drop, hedge funds pile on the short side via leveraged derivatives, big shares drop some more, margin calls all around, small shares drop, insiders unload, margin calls all around, NASDAQ drops ... Moral hazard Greenspan steps in, and all is well one more time. We know the script, we just do not know when to take a toilet break before the crowds from intermission makes way to the exit.
Bonds going down and shares going up, Dow going down and NASDAQ going up? Nope, one or the other is wrong. |
