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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD
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To: The Ox who wrote (11633)1/24/2000 9:41:00 PM
From: Thean  Read Replies (3) of 14427
 
Mike, it makes perfect sense to me that AMCC is valued 2.5 times more than VTSS. The basis is float.

VTSS's float is 131.9 MM.
AMCC's float is 46.6 MM.

The ratio is 2.8, very close to your 2.5 estimate.

This is the single best attribute in making profit prediction in hot stocks like the IPO's. Why do two IPO's of equal substance perform so differently on the IPO? The answer is in the float. The number of willing buyers out there is the same. The supply of stock makes the difference.

VTSS and AMCC are in the same space and thus should be attractive to investors the same way from their business offerings. Let's assume those who know VTSS also know AMCC and vice versa. Let's also say half wants to buy VTSS and half wants to buy AMCC. They go out to the market to buy VTSS and AMCC. The theoretical result is AMCC goes up 2.8 times more than VTSS after some time.

Therefore, what is surprising to me is that the original investors (presumably the big institutions who want to hold LT) have not sold any AMCC and switch into VTSS simply based on the relative disparity in valuation.

However, if the market gets a big scare and shake out all sorts of investors, then the distribution of buyers over the two stocks on the rebound may be adjusted to overweigh VTSS. On the other hand, if this market keeps rocketing higher, the disparity in ratio is going to stay the same since no net sellers are willing to unload AMCC or VTSS.
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