Actually, I like both TERN and CMTO. I don't see much point in getting into a religious debate about the pros and cons of the two companies' technologies. I believe in the future of broadband and cable modems, so I own both. I don't need to be right about the companies to make money, I just need to be right about broadband. History has shown that the best technology doesn't always win. Witness the history of DOS/Windows versus Macintosh, or VHS versus betamax.
I take it you can't debate the fundamentals of either company. I also take it you're quite young. Otherwise you'd know stocks don't go up forever. Let me assure you if a decline has anything to do with re-stated earnings, you don't want to be holding. No, I'm not suggesting this will happen but I am suggesting it pays to know a company's fundamentals. There are simply too many excellent companies out there to waste time on one with questionable ethics.
As an analogy, I'd refer to Ascend and US Robotics. Flame wars used to rage here on SI about the relative merits of both companies. However, long-term investors in both companies did well. To make money, you only had to be correct about remote access.
If you held when either was acquired you're correct. You also had good timing. However, if you'd held either for any length of time afterwards, you'd have taken some serious air. Witness COMS fall from grace and LU's recent slide. Both held admirable status in their respective fields and were, indeed, excellent investments at their heights. It's been said of Dylan Thomas that his most brilliant career move was dying young. Change death to being acquired and the same could be said of ASND and USRX. However, neither is a correct analogy for TERN and CMTO, unless you want to discuss USRX's stuffing the channel, a fact that didn't come to light until after the ink was dry.
I don't know whether you are right or wrong WRT to TERN. It just seems improbable. As they say, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that people aren't out to get you.
If exposing a wide diversion between a company's SEC disclosures and their CEO's public comments and press releases is paranoia, then I'm guilty. However, since you don't know if I'm right or wrong, how can you pass judgment? Wouldn't it strengthen your thesis to find out?
I'm really disappointed you've declined the debate. I was actually looking forward to a healthy point-counter-point.
Cheers!
Pat |
