DRAM demand seen to grow more than 700% in 2003
Taipei, Jan. 24, 2000 (CENS)--Chip industry research institutes forecast that global demand for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) will grow more than seven fold between 1999 and 2003. DRAM supply, they add, will lag far behind demand until several new 12-inch wafer fabrication plants begin production.
A South Korean electronics-industry journal estimates world DRAM demand will surge more than seven fold to US$80 billion or so in 2003, from 1999's US$20 billion. The media reports that world supply remains far behind the demand despite a steady expansion of output recently.
Dataquest Inc. and International Data Corp. of the United States and the Industrial Technology Information Service of Taiwan point out that the demand for DRAM will sharply expand with the explosive popularity of sub-US$1,000 personal computers, Internet-access devices, new-generation chipsets, and microprocessors. Personal computers in US$1,000-plus category have been the major DRAM users, absorbing around 75% of world output.
Sub-US$1,000 PCs have revived DRAM demand in the PC market, which was sluggish over the past few years. The market absorbed a total of 2.45 billion 64Mb DRAM chips in 1999. The figure is forecast to jump to four billion chips this year and 17.6 billion chips in 2003.
Last year, over two billion DRAM chips were produced globally. Output is expected to hit 3.3 billion chips this year, at which time chip plants are expected to begin producing with 0.18-micron technology. Thereafter, processing technology is anticipated to progress more slowly, straining world DRAM supply until several new 12-inch wafer fabs ramp up production.
Most of world's industry research institutes agree that world DRAM market will remain strong over the next few years, though they differ over how good the good times will be. Some predict a growth rate of 40% from 1999 to 2003, at which pace the chip market will surge to US$80 billion in 2003 from 1999's US$20 billion.
The institutes predict, moreover, that strong DRAM demand will keep prices from falling.
Taiwan's five major DRAM makers--ProMos Technologies Inc., Winbond Electronics Corp., PowerChip Semiconductor Corp., Nan Ya Technology Corp., and Vanguard International Semiconductor Corp.--plan to put out 200 million chips, 160 million chips, 120 million chips, 120 million chips, and 100 million chips, respectively, this year.
Their combined output represents 21% of anticipated global DRAM production this year. Industry insiders estimate that Taiwan will account for 23% of the world total next year, when chipmakers introduce 0.17-micron and 0.18-micron technologies. |
