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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: DownSouth who wrote (16272)	1/25/2000 9:32:00 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 54805

DownSouth, Re: Strategis Group 2.5G/3G wireless subscriber forecast all technologies. << so much meat in this presentation. Its a keeper >> It really is. On my hard drive. There will be several to follow (EMV, Yankee, Gartner et al). This, however, is the first presentation I've seen that really forecasts out past 2003 and gets into projections of 2.5G & 3G. The focus on Japan, China, (and Brazil) are very interesting. In the US we have somewhat CDMA colored glasses, and tend to forget that the battlegrounds are elsewhere. Today the US is the largest cellular market in the world. Still a lot of analog stuff to replace, but Asia and Latin America are where the growth will occur. We talk a lot about 3G but 2G & especially 2.5G are going to be a around for a long time. Earlier this week you were questioning and commenting on the wireless & cdma tornadoes. My view is this. There was a digital wireless mobile telephony tornado well before the start of the cdma tornado. Committee based architecture employed with the big three and particularly Nokia & Ericy dominating this tornado as princes. The cdma tornado formed inside the larger tornado establishing QCOM as the gorilla of CDMA (but not wireless). The ERICY accord established QCOM as the 3G gorilla well before 3G is commercially available since Q IPR will be in all implementations. I think that the next tornado to form will be a wireless data tornado, not necessarily a 3G tornado per se, but encompassing both 2.5G & 3G which will build out somewhat in parallel. I think that these new slides bear that out and I am hoping Merlin puts these under his microscope and comments. All JMO of course. - Eric -

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