Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Duncan Baird who wrote ()	1/25/2000 10:07:00 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (2) of 1577330

Technical Comment: The unpredictability of "double witching" last Thursday and Friday reinforced by the overall negative market of yesterday has resulted in an exaggerated price decline in AMD wholly masking the outstanding results posted last Wednesday...Additional fears of a price war have fueled further uneasiness in those who are incapable of reading between the lines as presented last Wednesday... Now that the technical factors of double witching and yesterday's negative market is behind, the sole remaining negative is uncertainty behind the Athlon price cuts. Mr. Sanders objective is to captue 30% market share in 2001...The only way to do so is to offer the best product at the best price, as in, the Athlon...Prices at the top end for the high yielding Athlon compare very favourably with its non-existant competitor at the top end and provide a cushion to be very price competitive with the competitor at 700MHz and below. As a result, one can expect AMD ASP's to rise to about $1.15 in Q1, even with the significant price cuts. Look at Q4 numbers...5.2 million non-Athlon processors @ $75 and 800 thousand Athlons at $250 resulted in processor revenues of $600 million or an average ASP of about $1.00... Assume 4.50 million non-Athlons @ $70 and 1.5 million Athlons @ $250 and you get close to $700 million in processor revenues....i.e. revenues smashing the $1 billion barrier and Q1 eps above $0.75, maybe even breaking the $1.00 barrier... All you naysayers out there, your 3 days of ambulance chasing are over...There is no way that AMD, given existing fundamentals, will not once again achieve new near term highs in the very near term!

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