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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Dan3 who wrote (89403)1/25/2000 1:40:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (2) of 1582695
 
Dan3,

Re:"intels ramp"

I suspect there is much truth in what you say.

I guess none of us appreciated that Intel is perhaps using a radically different 0.18 process from its 0.25 with some changeover in equipment.

I guess they went from 4-5 0.25 fab running at 80% or so capacity in mid year to running 100% capacity utilization with a mix of 0.25/0.18. But as equipment was being changed/qualified it is likely that overall wafer start capacity DECLINED during the changeover.

And as Intel ramps up the ramp, I suspect that by mid 2000 they will be essentially migrated to 0.18 - in terms of available product. Mp point is that as wafer sizes decline and yields improve it takes approx 50% of the wafer starts that it took with 0.25.

So intel is likely to be in somewhat of a crunch till mid year. And with spitfires on their way with a likely $100 ASP this will put severe pressure on Celeron/PIII 0.25 micron products/prices/margins in Q2.

regards,

Kash
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