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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: mtnlady who wrote (16382)1/25/2000 4:42:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
mtnlady,

I'll try to address your two most recent concerns by wrapping them into one response, highlighting the following:

I have heard on numerous occasions that QCOM has a 'lock' on CDMA but I've also heard much noise to the contrary (e.g. IDC's claims).

I have heard on numerous occasions that CDMA does not work. Most of them came from Qualcomm's competitors. Perhaps you are aware that in the fairly recent past the CEO of Ericsson said the company would never adopt CDMA.

So who do you believe?

Believe the millions of end users. Believe the companies spending millions to be able to sell CDMA-based products and services.

Does Qualcomm have the lock on future CDMA innovations? Of course not. No more than Microsoft has the lock on future operating systems, no more than Cisco has the lock future routers, no more than Intel has the lock on microprocessors. No company ever has a "total" lock forever.

What we do know is that Qualcomm's experience and track record of being the only company to bring CDMA innovations to market in economically practical models that work. When Qualcomm competitors produce a CDMA-based product, they pay Qualcomm royalties. If you believe as I do that their past track record and experience gives them a GIANT lead on any competitors, you can also come to the conclusion that the CDMA components of G3, G4 and maybe even G5 will probably be dominated by Qualcomm.

"Probably" is the operative word.

That's why Gorilla Gamers keep abreast of the competition, both from within the same discontinuous innovation and from other other discontinuous innovations that could entirely displace CDMA.

I see a lot of people trying to slight Qualcomm because their current lock on CDMA is not ensured. No, it's not ensured. But until something or someone better comes along, I've got no reason to be anything less than very enthusiastic about Qualcomm's long-term prospects.

--Mike Buckley
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