In addition to being a point defining the (now broken) trendline that I mentioned last Thursday, the 1/7/2000 low of 68 is important to me now as a support level that broke and failed a re-test today. Big time! So we have long-term and short-term trendlines breaking all over the place. And we're solidly below the moving averages, blah blah.
FWIW, the two biggest volume days in the past month were today and Friday when we hit 65. Usually that would indicate a short-term bottom to me, but both days were different. The price and volume didn't form an organized "hourglass" figure; the sells came out of nowhere, and in torrents.
Wasn't Dim-Wit's previous "mid-day call" way back when also at 68? (I suppose, according to Dim-Wit, that 68 was a bargain then, but expensive now. And all that stuff between 68 and 80 in the meantime was "noise".) I recall one day it was jacking around 68-69 over and over, and finally he came out with the call and it sold off anyway.
65-68 is the whipsaw zone for the next few days, perhaps, as the rest of the analysts gear up for February tout-fest season. Heck, maybe we even see 70 again. But BofA and Gruntal are out of the picture, and you can bet that everybody else has been eyeing the door for some time. The technical indicators are falling apart. It's just a matter of time before everybody stops pretending that there is any fundamental reason for Micron's market cap to be anywhere near its tippy-tippy-top market cap peak of 1995 when they were more or less dictating the price of DRAM to their customers. (210M shares * $95 = 265M shares * $75.)
Folks, if you're bearish, it's not worth it at this point to hope for another chance to short it at 70 or better. Just short it and buy a 80-90 (or even 75-85 at this point) call spread as blowoff insurance in the same phone call and be done with it. |
