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Technology Stocks : COM21 (CMTO)
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To: Hassell Anderson who wrote (1600)1/26/2000 2:25:00 AM
From: Srinivasan Balasubramanian   of 2347
 
Hassell Anderson

I have utmost respect for George Gilder's grasp of technology trends (I am a subscriber of his newsletter too) but his opinion on Terayon may be flawed in my opinion. According to my limited understanding I think the advantages CDMA brings to wireless communications are mostly absent in cable. To equate TERN to QCOM is far fetched for the time being. QCOM emerged from the shadows only when Ericcson opened the doors for CDMA to make inroads into Europe. On a similar note, the TERN story is based on their patented S_CDMA being made part of DOCSIS. Even if it does happen I am not certain in what form TERM may bebefit from it.

Terayon's relationship with Rogers and Shaw (two of their largest customers) reminds me of Ancor's (ANCR) relationship with Sun Microsystems which attracted lot of negative opinions (Herb Greenberg of theStreet.com etc) in the media. TERN has somehow escaped closer scrutiny and the analysts have been superficial in my opinion.

some of the questions raised in this board about TERN are quite legitimate,

1. the recent spate of acquisitions and the refusal to elaborate on the revenue contributions from the recent acquisitions.

2. no further details on the two warrants this qtr

3. why TERN sells much 4x more headends than CMTO in a quarter but does not have a corresponding increase in revenues?

4. fate of DOCSIS 1.2 is still very murky. TERN still does not have its own modem DOCSIS certified.

Also the sudden interest of TERN in xDSL is kind of strange as this way they may losing their focus on their core competencies.

In contrast CMTO has a more organic and evolutionary approach.

-Srini
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