Robert -
Agreed, the GE deal will move the price eventually. I think part of the problem with IW's stock price is that it takes a fairly sophisticated analysis to estimate the benefit of IW's relationships. Some of these deals are fairly straightforward - ie., the bundling of Symmetry with Glenayre's pagers: get industry rates for adoption of the new product, get sales breakdowns, and you should have a guesstimate of revenue for that alliance of software and hardware.
On the other hand, what will be the revenue from the ASP deal with Mi8? How well will the ASP model work for Infowave? Maybe people won't like working that way - or maybe it'll go like crazy. I can't find a lot on the subject.
I haven't looked back at the Compaq site lately, but the last time I looked, it was little more than a blurb about Infowave - free advertising, at best.(Though I'm convinced more awaits).
The RAM deal, however, was a genuine reseller's agreement.
SIDEBAR [BEGIN RANT}: Rumor has it there is discord in the house that will set a new price target soon. Maybe the faction that has been advocating these ridiculously low targets should be taken out and shot - twice.
And there it is - instead of doing the analysis, the brokers fake it. When you examine the (public) analysis given by some Canadian brokerages that dabble in small-cap, it's discouraging. The example that comes to mind is the Yorkton/Pavan fiasco with Bid.Com. That was either so bad it looked crooked, or it was crooked. It cost a lot of people money. Infowave has been seriously hobbled by the lack of insight, and laziness, of Canadian brokerages.
[END RANT]
Even though CDMA is the preferred technology for the future, right now 70% of the world's phones are TDMA. ITU showed no willingness to ruin people with expensive infrastructures by forcing them down the CDMA/3G road. So it looks like Infowave's decision to delay CDMA product was understandable.
But the time is now, for sure, for CDMA product. Important for SW, yes. For 3G. For WK and Qualcomm (I've wondered if Infowave's CDMA schedule wasn't the reason for Qualcomm's Eric Schultz coolness to Infowave).
And GSM will be an important increment in Infowave's revenue, deriving from Europe. This is a market where Infowave can make serious inroads.
So, Infowave stays a little behind the curve. And every time IW puts out a news release, I have a vision of Canadian analysts, squinting at their monitors, trying to figure out what all those numbers mean. |
