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Biotech / Medical : QDEL - Quidel more quick diagnosis

QDEL 24.35

+14.3%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Mike Relyea who wrote (689)	4/25/1997 11:23:00 AM
From: DeadHead	of 1693

If you look at the 5-year chart on QDEL, you'll notice that it's only been below 3 twice in 1995. It was then followed by a nice run up to 7 in 1996. For what it's worth under the current circumstances, there is some historical support at 2.5. I've been thinking about the patent lawsuit and what are QDEl's alternatives. Assuming there is merit to this BD lawsuit: * They could settle, which will probably cost them some money and a cut into their profits. * They could defend themselves in court. Anything can happen there. * They also might pay some penalty for 'damages done' and then over time reengineer their tests in some way so as not to infringe on the patent. Then, what if there is little or no merit to the lawsuit? You have to wonder if the patents held by BD and Unipath are broad enough to encompass all possible technologies for test strips. What about Chemtrak and Tinity Biotech? Are their test-strip technologies also threatened by these patents. I know all of these companies, including Quidel, have patents of their own, so the validity of this lawsuit is not as cut-and-dry as some of us would think. Sure BD is a big company that can hire an army of lawyers. But I don't believe our patent courts have degenerated to the point that money is the only deciding factor in a patent lawsuit. The bottom line is that the market appears to be reacting to the news with little real information on the lawsuit or Quidel's alternatives. I think the fact that some of the bigger investors have been buying on the dips says a lot more than a bunch of us little guys panicking and driving the stock down on relatively low volume. I don't mean to underplay the danger here, because it's there. It's just not as much of a done deal as the stock price seems to indicate.

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