Gottfried - and all interested in the machinations of NASD - this is kinda long
OK
1. Divide all volume by 2 - this is otc
2. I went back from 2:30 to the close - I do not see any 600,000 prints - not in 1 piece. And I am getting better data than that site (which I did not look at)
3. A couple possible scenarios - this gets kind of - not really complicated (most otc traders have the mental agility of a chocolate Lab) but incestuous.
First thing - there is no "crossing" of blocks over the counter - it is a buy and sell from principal account. On the NYSE or any auction market the spec. will move inside markets to put up a piece. Since all interested parties are standing around the same post - they all are aware and are either sized or move out da way. OTC is obviously different if only for geographic reasons.
WHAT This looks like to me (pure speculation, but w/ experience)
either 1. Somebody was a size seller - close to a million, went to a wholesaler (this looks the handiwork of one in particular)who started slamming bids around 2:00, moved it down to the 49 area where the ONLY two blocks of any size were put on (a 200k and a 100k)cleaning up the seller. The wholesaler maybe kept 50 to 100 in his account depending on his nerve. Without the pressure from the seller - whoosh back up to 51.
Remember- the seller hit enough bids that everyone knew who it was - so when he raised his markets - the rest followed. ANOTher important point - these guys are SHEEP - if someone is leading they all fall in line. So it is not conspiracy but a unstated fear. Here is how the phone call sounds "Yo Vin, I got 10,000 AMAT to go or a number , your bid at 1/4 w/ three others..." Operative phrase in italics means get out da way. In the old days if you asked him how much for sale (aka opening him up) you had a gentleman's agreement your bid was good for 75,000. A lot has changed, so unless the two traders know each other, the bid gets out of the way. Down it goes until it goes up. Remember baaaaa - to err is human to trade bovine.
2. Some rumour went around and enough hedgies and other fast money sold that everybody got out da way.
LAST point - AMAT like LRCX is the stock of choice for traders. Which means that even though it trades 8 million a day, the inside market is not good for size, cuz nobody is going to buy or sell a lot of a stock that moves two points while you are getting a cup of coffee.
AND thsi means that SOES is all over it. Look at time and sales and you see pages of 1000 share prints - bandits on the warpath. And that makes mkt makers even more reluctant and exacerbates any moves. It is like jet fuel.
Rambled a bit, but I hope this helps. Let me know if I missed anything -
td |
