BWAC - unfortunately, her theories don't hold water - that is the problem.
NITE's *rate* of market share growth may slow going forward - that is a mathematical reality. MSFT has 90+% of the desktop O/S - where can it go from there? Well, they diversify their income streams. Same for NITE. OBVIOUSLY at some point they cannot continue to take market share, but that is a ways off. And NITE is diversifying and expanding internationally. My take is as follows:
1)NITE continues to gain market share in the US.
2)By the time NITE has topped out in market share in the US, their European operations should kick in - timing. That should continue their growth.
3)NITE is diversifying their business. In particular, their options business. Here, NITE has a very big job ahead of itself, true (and I pointed that out). On the other hand, their market share of the options business is rather small - so room for expansion exists.
4)At some point, Japan will kick in. Further, I think that when you are talking 5 years out (which is where I'm looking here, in point #4), NITE surely will have grown other income streams such as bonds etc (from KP's vision of any instrument at any time from anywhere in the world). I may have many objections to KP - but I know he is brilliant businessman, and if anyone can pull it off, he can. I'd bet on him.
5)This is speculative - but I am hoping that at some point KP wakes up and starts thinking like a "giant" (Wetherel, Case, etc.). My bet is that he is intelligent enough to analyze the situation, and reevaluate his strategies. In some important respects, he blew it - lost opportunities. I say, one day he buys a ML or otherwise diversifies beyond what Wall Street dreams of (or has nite-mares about<g>) today.
OK - why the hell do *I* have to come here and defend NITE??? Damn it, this should be the job for the cheerleaders who regularly bash me here - why have they all of a sudden fallen silent?
Morgan |
