Comment ---> $4.5 million new business in Q4
Thanks for a peek at what's ahead when Messagemedia reports Q4 on 2/10/00. It's about time "Little Boy Blue" blew his horn. I've been calling for something like this for some time #reply-12259491. Larry's learning curve is picking up. Congratulations! However, he still wants to define Messagemedia in one dimension; ie, revenues #reply-11720783.
We had a hint in Larry Speaks II that earnings would be good #reply-12578775, but new business in Q4 #reply-12683274 beating Q3 pro-forma earnings of $3.6 million #reply-11705268 is better than expected. Much better indeed!
Recall that little known analyst (Brad) at Stephens, you know, the one that took the dog on pony on the road with Messagemedia #reply-12626995. His Q4 revenue estimate ($5.0 million), is looking a wee bit meager when compared to the $4.6 million new business.
Consider: If all things remained equal, and you add Q4 $4.6 million new business to Q3 $3.6 million old business, the Q4 estimate would be $8.1 million. Compared to KANA's (may it rest in peace) record $6.5 million Q4 #reply-12630737, Messagemedia's dominance in the industry is becoming apparent. Now, if it can just get some respect!
But I'm not through with Q4 earnings. Recall the sub-title in todays PR, "Extended Services to Existing Clients" indicates Q3 revenues is not static and we can expect old business to contribute more than $3.6 million to the Q4 $8.1 million estimate. How much, is anybody's guess, but Yahoo!s record $6.7 billion of transactions #reply-12540910 suggest increase in old business will be significant. This, plus that extra $.4 million source of revenues #reply-12612458, coupled with a full quarter contribution from Revnet and Decisive #reply-11547312, suggests Messagemedia will come in well above $8.1 million -- that's more than double Q3 or should I say, it's going to be a kick-ass quarter.
The only explanation I have for Brad coming in so low with his Q4 estimate after all those road shows, is that he an Tork slept in separate motel rooms. I mean, for Stephens to miss the revenue estimate by such a large margin, suggests Messagemedia hasn't taken any analysts into its bed.
Anyway, the stage is set for analyst upgrades etc. which will create some excitement in MESG near term.
On another note: One thing I liked in today's PR, is that Messagemedia serves three computer companies; ie, Apple, Dell, and Compaq. This is a significant point. I've been wondering if competitors would use the same email company since it opens the possibility of raiding competitor's customer lists. Apparently, this is not a problem. |
