VISX Message Board - Msg: 12687833

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Biotech / Medical : VISX

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To: yosid who wrote (1561)	1/26/2000 2:14:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) of 1754

There are several problems with VISX, which can be summed up as uncertainity. It is not that they are gauranteed to fail, but that they promised they were as safe as money in the bank and have been proven wrong. So who knows how wrong. Here are the issues: (a) The patents are not as air-tight as VISX had people believe. This means that they are open to competition and therefore price errosion. (b) There is a shortage of "good" doctors, which limits the amount of operations and therefore VISX's growth rate. (c) There is now a serious threat that VISX will have to give up on their per-usage fee model due to competitative pressures. For what it's worth, I think VISX can maintain a technological lead or at least be up there. But that does not solve the above pressures. The market is trying to price in above margin and growth rate pressures and compensate for the risks. And no I don't think VISX will bounce back as fast as it fell, no matter what the good news. Now if the down trend continues over the next few days, then I'll actually go against the trend. Otherwise I'd wait for some stability before buying. ST

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