From Yahoo - New GKM Report on OPMR
by: Livinthemoontime 1/26/00 2:09 pm Msg: 1461 of 1461
Optimal Robotics+*# (OPMR)? Another Major Order; Raising Shipment Forecast-BUY
Scot Ciccarelli, CFA Deron Kennedy, CFA
(212) 885-4017 (212) 885-4064
sciccarelli@gkm.com dkennedy@gkm.com
January 26, 2000
Price: $35.88 52-Wk Rng: 40.75 ? 7.00 Price Target: 52 S&P 500: 1410
Shrs Out/Mk Cap: 13.3Mil/$477.2 Mil 5 Yr Est Growth Rate: 50%
Div/Yield: -/- LTD/Cap (1999E): 0%
Avg Daily Vol: 139,200 ROE (1999E): 6%
Float: 7.6Mil EBITDA/share (1999E): $0.12
FY Ends -- EPS -- -- Fully-Taxed EPS* --
Dec. Curr Prior P/E Curr P/E
98A $(0.52) N.M.
99E# $0.16 N.M. $0.10 N.M.
00E# $0.50 71.8x $0.30 119.6x
01E# * $0.95 37.8x $0.95 37.8x
Qtrly -- 1Q -- -- 2Q -- -- 3Q -- -- 4Q --
EPS@ Curr Prior Curr Prior Curr Prior Curr Prior
98A $(0.12) $(0.13) $(0.14) $(0.14)
99E# (0.08)A 0.05A 0.12A 0.02
00E# 0.10 0.16 0.19 0.04
^ Intraday; @ Quarters may not total due to rounding - quarterly figures are un-taxed; * Assumes a 40% tax rate, company
should become fully taxed in '01; # Diluted EPS in US$ as per Canadian GAAP; N.M. - Not meaningful.
Another major order for U-Scan; visibility has never been so high; raising shipment projections.
Meijer, a private, multibillion dollar supercenter retailer, has agreed to purchase and install a minimum of 100
and up to 150 U-Scan Express systems over the next 18 months. We are now assuming Meijer installs 75-
100 systems in 2000 (vs. our prior projection of 50-75). Meijer is essentially installing two systems per store
and operates 127 supercenters. Backlog is now about 100% of our prior shipment forecast and it is only
January. While we are going to remain conservative in our EPS projections, we are raising our system sales
forecast to 540 from 520. We are maintaining our untaxed 2000 EPS estimate of $0.50 and fully-taxed
estimate of $0.30, as the company continues to spend a lot of money in building its infrastructure to support
its substantial growth. We are not changing our 2001 estimates at this point. We believe revenue and
earnings visibility for Optimal has never been so high and all new orders at this point are essentially
incremental. We continue to rate OPMR BUY with a 12-month price target of $52.
Fourth major order cements backlog vs. original expectations. Optimal has now received bulk orders
from four of the country's largest retailers, including Kroger, A&P, Ahold and Meijer. This is in addition to a
plethora of initial orders and early rollouts from various retailers from which Optimal has already received
orders for installation in 2000. Orders now need to be a lot bigger than they used to be for them to be
deemed ?material? enough for the company to make an announcement. The following is a summary of
orders already received and expected to be shipped this year:
Company Orders for 2000
Kroger 200
Ahold 100
A&P 100
Meijer 75-100
Other 25-30
Total 500-530 vs. our original 520 system projection and our new 540 system forecast.
Additional U-Scan orders and sales likely. The above numbers refer to orders already received and
obviously provide the company with substantial revenue and earnings visibility. However, we are highly
confident that additional orders will materialize as the year progresses. For example, at this time last year,
the company had orders for roughly 175 U-Scan systems and ended up selling at least 275 systems, 100
more than were in-hand early in the year. With greater industry exposure and a significantly shorter selling
cycle, we firmly believe additional orders will materialize (although they may take the form of smaller rollouts
for 2000 with a more substantial commitment for 2001, which is the way it played out with A&P and Ahold). |
