John- If Dell ever hit 35 (due to some sort of warning..) it would be a huge, huge buying op....we would see a ton of upgrades (with even Niles on board), and the stock would spend, IMO, a few minutes (less than an hour), at most, at such levels....Even Niles thinks it is a buy at 38...Institutions would come in heavy....you made a very good call on it falling to 40...however, thinking it will stay at 35 for any considerable length of time is pure folly, IMO..
Even if Dell reports .20 this quarter, at 35, the stock would have a P/E under 50...with EPS growth projected between 40-50% y-o-y this next fiscal year...no way it stays at 35..basketball bounce...as I said, institutions will buy like crazy..
(I am hoping to average down on a recent small buy at 41.54 (2x previous purchase) to get my cost basis between 40-40.5...Some brief moments in the 30's would help me do that.....I will be holding less Dell than previous....Having bought Tyco at 36 and change yesterday......If Dell would warn after the bell today...I think we would see 37/38, at worst)..I expect the stock will recover Thurs and Fri...
BTW- I am amazing that Lou & your boys at IBM got away with blaming Y2K for obvious execution problems and poor product competition....and Lou using it (Y2K) to give IBM even more cushion for Q1.......As you know, neither Sun or EMC noted any problems...and effects from Y2K on Dell, Compaq are minimal... |
