Carl, I think that the NAZ could get to 3800 and in a bad case of the nillies, I have as a bottom 3500, if that is breached, we have a bear market a year ahead of my "grand schedule" (it is calling for this year to still be bullish with the naz peaking late summer at about 4800 and the DOW at about 13,500, then a severe bear market in 2001, with the DOW possibly going just under 10,000 or a good 25% from its peak of 13,500). I expect the liquidity theme to reestablish itself no later than the first week of March, and possibly earlier, but for now, I have stepped aside from many "volatile positions" like VLNC, HAUP (sold today, nice moves in both, the former could probably add another 15% before it takes a rest, IMHO) and am out of the Semi equip (the last to go was CYMI at $64, at least I did not leave too much on the table). I missed the VECO run, but "predicted" a good chunk of it just the day before it broke up from $37 or so, too bad I did not ride that one...
Zeev |
