DH: The most important play for the next 10 years is wireless - no question about in my mind - therefore Q wins hands down long-term. That being said, I believe that there are only about 5-6 million broadband connections in the USA currently. We have a 10-year build out of optical networks to be done here alone. And probably, and I'm guessing at this, 25 years or so for worldwide build-out. Think of what it would take to build and lay fiber in China or India or S. America, etc. So both companies will do great, although the royalty streams for QCOM should be more awesome from a pure profit viewpoint in the years ahead.
As far as the short-term, please refer to my previous post #64623 regarding QCOM. We're range bound for the next several months and traders will have a field day. Towards the latter part of this year, the gorilla will arise again and clear some serious brush. Near-term JDSU should outperform based upon their forward looking statements. I also believe JDSU will outperform QCOM this year percentage wise. JDSU being added to the S&P 500 should help as well if that happens. JMHO. The best bet - hold both long-term and prosper. But QCOM will go through more skittish times over the next 3 months or so and has more resistance to clear - a short-term view. Further market corrections in the tech area and both will be hit hard, QCOM harder than JDSU.
As always, FWIW. No one has a crystal ball. It's my gut that is telling me this. And you know what, FA, TA, P&F - you name it - nothing is infallible in this volatile market. This is one hell of a volatile market and it reminds me of a casino circus atmosphere with CNBC and all the talking heads as the ring leaders. I guess investing will never be the same anymore. Goes with the times. Geez, remember the days when you made a 1/4 - 1/2 point on your stock and you were thrilled. Now we talk about 10-baggers in 9 months and if that doesn't happen, let's move on to something else. This can't or won't hold up long-term - something's got to give.
jmanvegas |
