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Technology Stocks : PairGain Technologies

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To: john p. carney who wrote (35687)1/27/2000 11:12:00 AM
From: BWAC  Read Replies (7) of 36349
 
JPC,

No this is more than likely not the time to move on. The time to move was at $18 in hindsight. A few reasons that this is not the time:

1.) The ME unit sale. Think about how much cash equivalents that added to PAIR. Ask yourself: Would you like to own PAIR yourself? You could buy it for 900 Million and finance/offset the purchase price with the 450 Million of net cash assets PAIR has. Don't for a minute think that ALL of PAIR's competitors can't read a balance sheet and they don't see the same thing. Do you think they would want some of PAIR's technology and sales, quickly and cheaply, without another price slashing war?

2.) Due to #1, Management turned the heat up on themselves to produce results or else. On a scale of 1 to 10 they were at a 5. Add more cash, stir in some competitors high stock valuations, add a dash of angry shareholders, and you have all the ingredients for a total and swift loss of control. The heat just got turned up to a 7 this week, and will soon reach boiling point if they don't get results. The balance sheet WILL attract attention from suitors.

3.) The risk of moving to another dsl stock is high. Obviously you could find one that is better managed and with positive momentum. But would your buy in price have a better risk/reward scenario than here? None of the other companies, except ADTN financially compare favorably to PAIR. They are all priced to perfection and full of risk.
PAIR is priced for, well, failure.

4.) You've been here a long time. If PAIR does get it right, your capital gains would be Long Term and 20% tax rate.

5.) Poison Pill. In sum is no defense.
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