Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?

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To: Trader Dave who wrote (3247)	1/27/2000 2:32:00 PM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (3) of 6974

Thanks TD for your great insights. I agree with you that if I was a customer supply chain and then CRM would be my moves to e-commerce. You feel that Siebel's strategy MAY be (or do you know for a fact eh? <g>) to mirror this with their e-app offerings? If a supply chain is, most likely, Siebel's next move then that raises new questions. Unless I am really missing something Siebel DOESN'T HAVE supply chain software right now no? So... either ... a) it is coming with Siebel2000 release or .. b) we may find out where some of that bond $$ they floated back in Sept. is going to go.. Perhaps helped by some $$ from big brother Blue? Now.. I KNOW NOTHING (!) about IBM's e-commerce offering except that it is to contain Siebel CRM package (or more?). Does IBM have a supply chain software app? If yes then I don't see Siebel going in this direction.. at least for now. If they do not.. pleasant thoughts bouncing around my head... then perhaps the Siebel2000 package is 'more' than CRM and e-CRM no? If so.. very nice <vbg!> Let's see... Siebel owns 'regular' CRM .. a 16bil market by 2003/4 (not sure if that contains e-CRM in that figure or not). They are moving into e-commerce market with HUGE partners (a 1. something trillion market) by 2003/4. AND they may get a bigger slice of the pie by expanding their suite of software... OK TD - wonderkind that your are! Where and WHO is going to supply the supply chain e-app software? Siebel or IBM? If Siebel then will Siebel write it or buy it (your humble - but VERY well informed opinion of course <vbg!>)? Will IBM sell Siebel's 'new' e-offering with their e-commerce suite? Will all of this become 'known' to us when Siebel2000 is released (may?)? OK - here is my very 'wild ass' guess... Siebel2000 will contain the first version of e-CRM AND e-supply chain software. This app was purchased from another company (like Scopus) but with Siebel's mods. The initial May release is sold/integrated in with the IBM e-commerce package with both IBM and Siebel selling the suite of software. Siebel still continues of course to sell their 'normal' CRM apps. e-commerce will be a different suite of products. Initial product will be crude but Siebel's great marketing/sales poweress overcomes this - helped by IBM and the GREAT (!) initial sales to @home, yahoo etc.. Other e-commerce software companies take Siebel's release rather 'lightly' (at least in public!) as it doesn't compete - quite yet - with their offerings. However (!) Siebel makes major in roads selling the new e-commerce software with existing customers and through IBM contacts. Siebel's product offering is well received by the street - mainly because of IBM's presense behind the app AND Siebel's track record. Many of the experienced e-commerce investment folks take a 'wait and see' approach concerning this new contender. Move ahead one year... Tom works his troops at warp speed so the next release, Siebel2001 for lack of a better word, really starts to carry some meat behind it (as existing functionality gets slowly incorporated into the e-commerce stuff) and we make some serious in roads into the e-commerce market. NOW (!) the e-commerce folks are getting a bit worried (aka Clarify and Vantive after Siebel bought Scopus and then a year later really made something powerful with their combined package!). Now we are kicking some serious **s! Not only is Siebel/IBM making some serious wins with their software but the wall street crowd suddenly wakes up to the fact that this new beast on the block not only is stealing market share right and left but that they, oh my gosh!!!, actually make one hell of a profit! (this is where the 'old' CRM dominance really helps! cash cow!). Now go ahead one more year... Siebel/IBM is starting to dominate the e-commerce market and .... IBM wakes up one day... and realizes.. oh my gosh! You know what?? The #1 selling portion of the e-commerce suite is ???? guess what!!! CRM and supply chain software!!! Which just happens to line Siebel's pockets VERY WELL .. but doesn't help IBM quite as much as they thought it would... Damn! Says IBM! We've done it again!!! Created another.... drum roll please!!! MSFT! And all of us Siebel software share holders ride off into the sunset happily ever after.. Lol! OK TD - that's my 'fantasy' .. tell me what reality is going to be!

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