MB, re:"More interesting were Dell's comments that demand from large corporate buyers failed to recover in January as expected, and that early indicators for February were not upbeat either. Those observations are at odds with Intel's forecast of a smaller than expected seasonal downturn in the first quarter. Although it's hard to tell what's happening, we think that Intel may have assumed that resolving its Coppermine problems was all that needed to happen in order to continue ramping revenues - actual demand softness did not enter into the calculation." Are those generalizations still too sweeping for you to comment on the point raised? If not, could you elucidate on how much detail you'd need before addressing the analysis."
with all due respect, yes still too general. This analysis paints Intel as pretty naive, don't you think?
Does Osha offer any analysis as to the scale of the impact he's so concerned about? How much of Dell's business is US vs. international? Intel has >50% of its business coming from outside US, what's the trend here? What's the trend for consumer markets?
What's the difference (and this is the hardest part to analyze) between the forecasted sales of the cumulative total of all the PC companies and the forecasted sales of Intel? Usually, all the PC companies plan to grow and take share, which of course they can't all do. Then there are times when supply is constrained, that is when it gets easier for Intel to forecast. Do you have any analysis that points to when precisely and at what unit volume of demand and supply that Intel will cease to be capacity constrained?
If not, then the analysis you referenced here is overly generalized. Extrapolating the PC market from the comments of a couple of companies may be useful to some but its a BIG, GLOBAL market with a lot of variables at work - oversimplification carries a lot of room for error.
regards,
jh |
