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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: steve harris who wrote (90086)1/27/2000 5:17:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (1) of 1582693
 
Steve,

Regarding Intel capacity constraints.

Well I believe PB on this.

They clearly didn't ship many more wafers in Q4 vs Q3.

They were helped of course by slightly higher ASPs etc.

What has confused me has been the fact that CPQ,GTW and DELL have said that demand in Q4 and somewhat in Q1 in US business market has been soft.

However Intel is going to ship MORE chips in Q1 2000 than Q4 99, and i suspect the same is true of AMD.

John Hull over on the Intel thread pointed out that over 50% of Intels BIZ is overseas. Frankly that surprised me. Now I know that AMDs BIZ is also majority overseas as well.

I had also read recently that Japan was running something like 80% growth YOY. As well as similar numbers for S.America, China and India.

If we figure that this market segment S.America,Asia,Japan and China was 20% of world demand in 99. With a static unit demand everywhere else(unlikely) anything close to a 50% YOY growth for the market still grows world wide demand by 10% or so.

Now Intel/AMD had planned for a seasonal demand drop for Q1.

In fact the US business market is DROPPING more than seasonally so far - just listen to IBM/Dell/CPQ etc.

But Intel is still sold out in Q1 even more so that Q4 99.

That tells me that there are other segments world wide that are growing rapidly taking care of the US BIZ market slowdown.

Should the US business market recover in Q2 as forecast we could have a major supply shortage throughout the year.

regards,

Kash
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