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I can't answer any questions about Osha's models, but I can take
stabs at the rest. 1. How much of Dell's business is US vs.
international? About two thirds. 2. [50%/non-US]
what's the trend here? I'm not sure, but this report
sure makes US and worldwide PC unit growth seem congruent:
biz.yahoo.com
3. What's the trend for consumer markets? Unclear
from Dell's report alone. Add in Compaq, IBM, Gateway, resellers; despite HP's
optimism ("home PCs and laptops particularly strong") you have a mixed bag.
4. [PC-bottom-up vs Intel overall] Bottom-up forecasts, by
their nature, tend to be skewed towards optimism. After the
fact, they necessarily balance.
5. unit volume of demand and supply that Intel will cease to be capacity constrained?
<g> Give me Intel's internal production forecasts
and let me set prices and I'll tell you. My best guess for IABG microprocessor demand, in dollars, is for
low-to-no-growth, say 0-5% revenue increases YOY.
My guess is that Intel is ramping for substantial unit growth,
probably not less than 15-20% YOY, perhaps more. Natch, whether this constrains capacity
is dependent on pricing; I expect the same old softness, so
even flat dollar growth might strain the ramp.
And last, in re a couple of companies, Dell and Compaq are
more than that to IABG, and you know it.
So, enough detail for you to provide thoughts instead of just questions?
-mb |
