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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (11475)1/27/2000 9:11:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (3) of 15132
 
David: Re: "I would like to read your comments on the market at this point in the week."

Looks like the money flow is not keeping up with the distribution at this point. Look at the huge NAZ volume and the negative progress in that index recently. This is an indicator of things yet to come IMO. Hats off to Brinker.

We will have rallies. And I suspect we may get a rally if we spin a good ECI number tomorrow and we get Greenspan lite next week. The market has a recent history of rallying the rate hike. Don't get me wrong. I don't understand that thinking now as there is nothing to celebrate in that regard. But the market has had the tendency to celebrate a rate hike because it sees it -- at least temporarily -- as the last one or as no big deal. You hear it all the time now --- " the rate hike is in the market" or "interest rates don't matter." Whatever. And it is just that kind of thinking that will cause the Greenman to drop the patient man routine. We may even get a rally in the long bond -- a celebration that the Greenman is ahead of the curve. Also, there is a big technology conference next week at Banc of America so we can again celebrate those wonderful technology stocks one more time. But if we get a bad spin on an important economic number, the party will come to a more abrupt end in this market environment.

As for me, I am looking into municipal bond funds in both the closed and open ended variety. I live in a high tax state and the tax equivalent yield on these puppies in the 10 - 15 maturity range is stunning for a the high tax bracket.(I would prefer a shorter average maturity but I have to deal with what is available). I can get an insured tax free bond fund with a taxable equivalent yield of 9 - 11% in my bracket. And then there is the high probability for capital appreciation on top of the yield. Now there is a favorable risk/reward idea. Sure beats the equity risk/reward equation. I think the folks on this thread should do some homework and thinking along these lines.
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