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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 101.44

+3.5%

Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Rarebird who wrote (47591)	1/27/2000 11:44:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (2) of 116759

I don't think you're going to see the capitulation type bottom you are looking for because, gold has been down for so long that the weak hands were bled out over a very long period. Thus, there is a very flattened bottom. There is a tremendous inverse head and shoulders bottom on the XAU, with a complex left shoulder late 97 and early 98. The head bottomed Q3 98 and the right shoulder is the huge shallow bowl most of 99. The breakout occurred Q3 99. The bear market was of such magnitude that there was a total retrace of the breakout to test the broken resistance (now support). It is my opinion that, the lack of urgency to sell off, evidenced by the extended shallow right shoulder, relative to the urgent deep sell-off evident in the head, is indicative of an inversion of trend. The new trend was confirmed on the volume breakout. It is common for breakouts to have a return to the broken trendline, to confirm the broken trendline has become newly formed support. iqc.com I believe we put in a hammer bottom today.

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