Hi Scott,
Thanks for your comments. I agree with most of what you said. Here's a few points I would add:
I would propose that George has listened to the technical arguments and examined the companies involved and simply stated that he thinks they have great technology
This is an excellent point. Unless you are an engineer and can conduct trials yourself, then ultimately you have to evaluate the opinions of others to draw a conclusion. There is no doubt that Gilder's opinions enjoy a lot of credibility.
So I don't believe that the majority of the folks investing have done the type of due diligence that others have
I think you can infer things from the actions of others. Several parties including the former CTO from CableLabs (Richard Prodan), and the owners of Telegate and Radwiz should have had an opportunity to do some real inside due dilligence. The fact that these parties all chose to tie their fortunes with TERN is a good indication that they are more than smoke and mirrors.
I do not try to mislead myself into believing that this doesn't have a great effect on the valuations of the companies that George discusses.
There is certainly a Gilder "premium" in TERN's price. However, the market price is set by many competing interests including individual investors, instutional investors, analysts, short sellers, day-traders, etc. In general, the liquidity that sets prices mostly flows from parties who are probably well-informed. I'm not saying that the market is always right, but it is most of the time.
Hassell |
