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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 53.80+2.7%3:59 PM EST
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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (590)1/28/2000 10:40:00 AM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
Given all of the recent economic data, I think a 50 point interest rate hike is more and more likely. The currency markets seem to be leaning in that direction too.

But I'm sort of curious. Is this really bad for biotech? Most of the better ones do not seem to be terribly affected by interest rates. And they're not selling into a market that is heavily influenced by how much money Joe Consumer has in his pocket.

In a way, I'd think it's a good thing since there're still a lot of undervalued biotechs around with significant appreciation potential. A hike in interest rates is more likely to curb the current wild consumer borrowing which will impact high tech sales - people won't buy quite as many PCs and other toys on credit - but that should simply accelerate the already started sector rotation.

I'm not an economist so could anyone enlighten me as to what I'm missing here? Yes, it'll mean turbulence for a bit. But it looks like the market is already busy pricing in a 50 point hike and given that, I don't see how the Federal Reserve can do anything else now. And once they actually announce it, the market should quiet down since it won't be an uknown any longer. And it'll be mostly priced in.

Thanks, Torben
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