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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: marginmike who wrote (2462)1/28/2000 1:29:00 PM
From: fuzzymath  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
I don't know how much fear there is yet -- too many new investors have never seen / felt a bear market. They think corrections are just opportunities to buy more shares. The 1998 fall of 20% in DJIA stopped, then all the money was made back. The amounts of money people have made in recent years will keep most in the market for some time, I think.

But, my models have said the true bull market in the NYSE ended in April 1998 or so, that we've been consolidating since then. My intermediate model said were were entering a possible correction last week. If today's drop holds all of my models will be at their maximum negative readings.

Of course, the NASDAQ is its own creature. The divergence between it and the NYSE in the past 4 months was an incredible indicator of pure speculation. Now I think the professionals are looking for something a little more safe. Hence the big rise in long-term bonds in the past week.

Kevin Farnham
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