Dear Jim,
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't QCOM dropping fairly fast after last earnings around $225 level afterhours? Seems it was down about $7-8, and then they announced the 4-1 split -- bamm! Up about $15 and never looked back. I have never seen a satisfactory answer (maybe just missed it) as to why QCOM should have risen like this in response to a split. This quick reversal still bothers me. If it was fairly valued (dare I use those words in this new market?) then, that would be about $56 now. Since I am just a senile old man, this thinking has no basis on fact, but I certainly would like to buy again at $56. Who knows, if Greenbean surprises with 50 point raise or one of the crazies in the Middle East stops the oil (there are many things happening over there which everyone seems to be ignoring), it could happen. I always worry about the hidden cards -- in this case a disaster of some kind -- especially in this market which has run so far so fast. Do you know how many 2nd mortgages have been taken in the past year to "play" the stock market? I don't have exact figures, but I think it is the majority! Everyone seems to discount the unbelievable as ludicrous -- that being a 50% stock market haircut, but all it would take is one unexpected event. I am almost all cash and am nervous as a cat just being out of the market wondering when to jump back in, but if I were fully-invested right now, I'd need to be sedated. These people on margin must have big cojones. Best to you.
I remain,
SOROS |
