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Rambus confounds market share estimation
Tom Murphy
Jan 28, 2000 --- Rambus DRAM continues to confound market estimation. While some analysts remain confident in Direct Rambus DRAM (RDRAM) memory technology and its future place in the marketplace, other analysts have begun to rock the boat.
In her "DRAM Market Direction" address at the Platform 2000 conference, Sherry Garber, senior vice president of Semico Research Corp., charted the RDRAM as gaining 2.6 percent of the total units shipped in 2000 and then trailing off to about 2.3 percent in 2001. Rambus RDRAM then declines to 1.1 percent of the units shipped in both 2002 and 0.8 percent in 2003. Garber predicted DDR SDRAM, the rival high-density memory device to Rambus, will gain approximately 8 percent market share this year and then experiences significant growth through 2004. For Garber, the high costs associated with RDRAM do not jib with the low-cost aspirations of PC consumers.
While the Phoenix, Ariz.-based market research firm's forecast sheds some doubt on Rambus as a memory platform, other analysts see the market shaping up differently.
"Even in the worst case scenario, we will see Rambus get up to 10 percent," said Steve Cullen, Cahners In-Stat Group. The Scottsdale, Ariz.-based market research firm mapped out four different scenarios for Rambus. In the best case, it takes 12.3 percent market share this year and moves up to 55.8 percent by 2004.
Meanwhile, market research firm Dataquest expects Rambus to gain a 14 percent share of the market this year, then quickly ram up to 60 percent by 2003, according to memory analyst Jim Handy. Once Intel establishes its 820 platform in the PC market while towing Rambus with it, manufacturers will quickly move to make it a cost-effective device.
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