This was enlightening, and I appreciate the reply, but it doesn't quite answer my question (and maybe it's impossible to know the answer). My question is, do you feel that this study will let you get a better return than something like an index fund? If not, what advantage do you feel that it has over an index fund?
I have a friend who is day-trading, and she's made a fair amount of money in the last couple of years, but it's a little hard not to right now, and I often wonder if she'd have done better just buying something and holding it. Is she really less at risk doing what she's doing, for example?
My strategy is different, and I just wonder if it's worth changing. For example, my last big bet (which was only big for me) was to buy SEBL shortly after they went public. I did this because I knew the people and the product, and I felt that they could win in what was bound to be a lucrative space. I had (and have) no idea what a fair price for the stock is, and I continue to hold it because I think that the company will perform well, not because I have any idea about the stock price. When I find something I like better, or stop liking the company, I'll sell out, but I have no idea when that will be. I guess that this is the Peter Lynch school of investing, but I don't see how someone that doesn't have access to the company (either because they are rich like Lynch, or live nearby, like me) can use it... |
