Hi P.M., re; <<COMS will go beyond $60 before the IPO.>>
- I agree with you, in fact, I was expecting COMS to break out to new highs when it reached 49...but no such luck. I did see a 51 1/2 price at around 7:30 but only 600 shares...and not counting on it to open there Monday!!!
Anyhow, been reading all the analysis on this thread and, quite frankly, some of us are dreaming (yeh, me too!), so let me play devil's advocate. My concerns are:
1. Given the depressed market, PALM ipo MAY be looked at as just another commodity...however, the future $'s for OS licensing (like a QCOM CDMA) have significant current and future value,,,I think!
2. Assuming COMS shares are worth 1.2 - 1.5 of PALM and assuming that PALM goes off at $20, we can initially say that the unique COMS street value will be reduced by $24 - $30 bucks...and, therefore, if COMS is going for $60 bucks at IPO time then we gotta say that COMS would fetch $30 - $36 W/O PALM!!!
So would YOU buy COMS at $30 - $36???
- Let's say the answer is, "NO"! Ok, using a total of 560 million shares of Palm and a market cap of $9B (bear with me!)...the price of IPO Palm goes off at $17! ...which means that COMS street value is commanding around $43 assuming a $60 street value at IPO time!!!
$43 for COMS (only)???? No way....!!!
But let's say PALM will fetch 18 Billion cap....now the IPO is a $32 stock and COMS is around a $28 street value....(COMS/PALM = $60!)
On the other hand, if one calculates that COMS sans PALM should go for only $9, then PALM should fetch a $51 price upon PALM IPO! to support a COMS/PALM price of $60 at PALM IPO time! that means that PALM would be looking at a a $28.5 B CAP. Is $28.5B Palm cap reasonable???
My point is that the street will put a value on COMS w/o Palm! and a peak value for PALM...so at IPO time the price of PALM will be already discounted...hence, any further increase or decrease in PALM will be reflected proportionately in COMS/PALM stock>>>> OMHO!!!
Anybody have a guesstimate on what COMS w/o Palm is worth????
Anybody predicting a peak market price/cap for PALM IPO...how high is HOT!
Bottomline, if one could estimate a reasonable market price for COMS w/o Palm and a "hot" (???) market cap for PALM ipo might,, we would be able to predict some numbers for COMS/PALM at IPO time!!!
Good luck to all.
ciao,
FNS
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