jef,
Whisper numbers in theory come from people with inside information or info resulting from lots of hard to duplicate phonework with a company's customers or distributors, etc. Check that website I referenced to see the form involved for submitting a whisper number.
As for the odd looking earnings trend. This quarter is big because Aurora should have booked several milestone payments in it, relating to successfull implementation of Module 2 -- the most difficult one --of the UHTSS at several big pharma sites. While other revenues will continue to ramp, bringing ABSC into consistent profitability, one time revenue items of this magnitude are not expected in the coming year. Thus next year's number is lower than this quarter's. The exact size of these milestones were not disclosed when the deals were announced or later, so there is some difference of opinion regarding how much their aggregate value is. That's why the whisper number is so different. Apparently the payments are bigger than analysts had guessed in deriving their estimates for this quarter. The volatility we are seeing is a result of that process, and the market's realization that another major index joyride is over for a few months.
It would minimize risk to hold off buying more until you learn more of this company's business. A blow out quarter could send the shares you have left flying for a while, in which case it was a good gamble on your part. If it sells off further, you have the chance to buy in the 20s. In the mean time, you can dig deeper, and be ready with price targets.
Cheers, Tuck |
