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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop

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To: Boplicity who wrote (1635)1/30/2000 12:31:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) of 35685
 
excellent points in technology article
it strikes at the essence of the New Economic Paradigm
some people hate that word "paradigm"

inflation is a thing of the past, except in minds of old farts
old farts like several on the Federal Reserve Board
Greenspan truly understands the new economic forces
the internet is an enormously important leveler for competition
measurement devices for productivity enhancements are sorely lacking

technology is where IT IS AT, plain and simple
they offer the best prospects of continued annual repeated strong growth
tech stock leaders are and have been the first taken down
tritely, it will continue until it stops
tech stock leaders will be the first to lead us out of the funk

this distribution phase really irks me
I have 3-4 latecomer friends investing in QCOM
they are all down, some more than others
a couple risktakers have been badly hurt
gorillas can pull us on a ride, or sit on us

I agree with Volt that QCOM will defy lower prices
100 price will likely serve as a giant wall of support
I see a rotation of whacking tech leaders
next up are Cisco, Uniphase, and several others
as they exit these leaders next to the woodshed, QCOM looms large

those savvy investors who fully comprehend the depth of change in the new economic principles, dynamics, forces, relationships, exploded myths, fallacious measurements (e.g. productivity), and broadening/deepening role of the internet, those investors will be the most prosperous

admission: my TA aint bad when we bounce around, roll up and down in momentum swings, and enjoy continuity of trend... but I need to hone my skills and learn to better provide more adequate notice on changes in nearterm trends

I examined charts as is my custom in post-mortem (only set back and wounded, not killed)... I see nothing up to Jan options expiration and thru Tuesday's earnings announcmt day... no signal of imminent collapse... the Relative Strength Index was steady... the daily stochastic indicator was not pulling up, but it was not teetering... the MACD was not gathering steam either, but it was clearly not croaking either... volume was actually picking up nicely

I can only conclude that we were hit at a time of tepid enthusiasm by the sudden vacuum of the time capsule... then magnified by product transition, customer inventory balancing, and poorly handled seasonality explanation

that is how I see it
upset, wounded, concerned about friends, ambitious to improve early warning

aint be working for the Man no mo
will have more time for better focus and work on research
looking forward to the challenge

sorry for my length (should never tell her that!)
/ Jim Willie
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