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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop

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To: marginmike who wrote (1630)1/30/2000 12:31:00 AM
From: Boplicity  Read Replies (1) of 35685
 
mm re: I dont disagree with you market sentiment, but I do disagree with the mentality that it will be some end all collapse. The big collapses were caused by REAL macro issues..

Just to take the other side of this. Wouldn't you agree that this market has been for the last two years throwing out all past methods of valuations? I do. Since this market is not your fathers market, couldn't this market end in a different way then past markets have ended? Could we be witnessing the start of a bear market on valuation being too excessive? Since the market is tied into the economy more then ever on consumer side, couldn't a extended drop in the market cause the consumers to rein in spending which in turn will cause your macro issues to appear?

Warning: I'm too big a believer in the technology lead revolution that we are just beginning to accept that a bear is at hand, the above is merely for discussion purposes only.

Comment: I believe the FEDs hands are tied, they don't want the market to drop too far, yet they don't want it to go up to fast. we get only a 25% rate hike, which will cause the market to have less of a bounce then we normally have gotten. I agree with Volt. the length of the drop we have just seen will cause this drop to last longer then past none oct/sept drops, just too much overhead resistance to work though.

Greg
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