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To: Ilaine who wrote (1645)	1/30/2000 1:29:00 AM
From: Whistler30	Read Replies (1) of 35685

CobaltBlue; Delve further into demographics and one can get a different perspective on Japan's market crash (from Boom Bust and Echo by David K. Foot): 1) In the 1970's and 1980's Japanese aged 40-60 who wanted to generate retirement income avoided the low return on bank interest and pushed money into the market - as a result the price of stocks outpaced earnings growth. I believe this is what is happening now in the USA. The reason why it happened in Japan at this time was demographic: fertility in North America declined in the 60's but it happened in the late 40's in Japan after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. One could argue a major precipitant of the Japanese crash was that retiring Japanese replaced their equity holdings for more conservative vehicles. 2) A major difference between real estate in North America in the 90's and Japan in the 70's is that real estate here (in most markets) is still affordable to the average income earner, unlike Japan in the 70's. 3) Demographically, North America is now pretty similar to Japan in the mid to late 70's - it is for this reason IMHO this bull market still has at least 5-7 years. Regards Whistler

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