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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 174.54-1.2%Nov 13 3:59 PM EST
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To: marginmike who wrote (65240)1/30/2000 2:43:00 AM
From: jack bittner  Read Replies (3) of 152472
 
i certainly know very little about Q, but i've been lucky enough to have been in it since it was 140 pre-split. fellow i posted to said it was growing 25-35%, you say 50%.
i should buy it from him and sell it to you.
i do see some holes in your post:
1) "NT building GSM in China ... has nothing to do with ... CDMA buildout."
who said it did? i was making the point obliquely that china isn't going 100% cdma. Q is priced as if there is no competition; as if only legacy systems are gsm - and now we read a big new one's coming in using gsm.
2) "Q ... growing 40-50% this year and 100% last year."
that's a bad trend. in your own words the growth rate's
cut in half. you know the law of large numbers?: it's
easier to double from 2 cents to 4 cents than from 100
to 200. Comprende? Q is not priced for a growth rate
that halves. at this p/e it HAS to double every year
or the market will kill the stock.
then you give us a series of prognostications as if they were accomplished facts: "This acceleration will start anew in 2001 with a host of new products." new products from a high tech company run by the brilliant dr jacobs? sure. acceleration? maybe. how do you KNOW. you jumped into 2001 and came back to tell us?
3) "what company is growing 50% YOY for the next 5 years ...?" no company. you're stating that the company IS presently growing 50% FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS. nobody can know that. maybe you, though. if you can jump into 2001, why not
2002, 2003 etc. IF it continues to grow at this year's rate, yes. IF it continues to be the most effective wireless protocol, yes. IF there is no disruptive technology that overcomes it, yes. lots of ifs i'm too tired to look for now.
"with equal visibility Qcom can give" what does that mean?
"... a buildout in GSM is a future CDMA sytem" why don't they build it now in cdma? you think it's less costly to build gsm first and then convert to cdma? who says the chinese will convert? what made them decide to use gsm? i've read Europe, which is largely gsm, is reluctant to change to cdma. but you KNOW it's a future cdma system.
if you'll recall what inspired your rant, i wrote to a fellow who said Q was growing 25-35% a year with the undeniable point that a good number of other firms were growing at that rate with lower p/e's. and i added a QUESTION as to why a chinese province chose gsm. you should be embarrassed to get so hot under the collar about such innocent remarks.
in high tech investing i think it's useful to question one's investments constantly because it is so dynamic; and to examine surprising developments like a big new gsm installation - to avoid being blind-sided.
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