>> Does anyone have a 'model' for estimating how far that can
push a price if they are all forced to cover say within
three days of approval? <<
Market caps, once rational players dominate trading, usually have a relationship to good valuation models (based on projected sales). It is almost the norm that biotech market caps, at the stage of FDA approval, are out of whack with any decent valuation model. If sales and margins are projected, by the analysts who have a good record and who have gotten the exisulind story correct to date, to support $690 million, then your question is a good one. If not, the shorts won't cover..... they'll just wait. In that instance, those who expected the shorts to cover, on a trading basis, might be expected to bail.
If you don't start with reasonable estimates of sales and margins, and then project back to a market cap that they will sustain, then you're lost.
>> There is plenty of life left in the CLPA short squeeze yet. <<
Convince us? I don't know the story; I have no bias. Which good analysts have gotten the exisulind story correct to date, and what are their sales projections?
>> It is my belief that the coming week or two will go down as a landmark in shorting history, when the larger players get vapourised upon the imminent FDA approval. <<
That would be cool. However, FAP is not a huge market, and it is not intuitively obvious, to me, why one would see a huge squeeze at this market cap. |
