Hello,all...
Some thoughts on the near-term and long-term for IW. APG's post from RB is turning out to be prophetic, and I for one am a little surprised at the extent of the price drop...the buzz was that this was a small float, tightly held. However, there appears to be more speculative money in IW than we thought.
The buzz is also that there is at least one major NR waiting in the wings, maybe two...it's all rumor, but I believe there is at least one. Why? I do not believe that IW would plan a NASDAQ listing unsupported by news - and we know that a NASDAQ listing is coming, by management's statement.
A month ago, maybe such news would have added $10 to the price - now I'm thinking $5. The market is overreacting now, there's a lot of margin buying, and a lot of that is in high-tech.
'Way back when, Greenspan's purpose was to engineer a "soft landing" in the boom/bust cycle - but we're definitely in a boom; he will apply the brakes - and high-tech will hurt. Money supply in the US will be slowly tightened as the excess liquidity inserted for Y2K is bled off - and markets will cool.
So I think Infowave will be swimming against the current, no matter how good the NR's are, until next
fall - then I'm expecting a big move, especially as wireless revenue begins to roll in, and be reported.
A link from Ed Yardeni's site, you'll need Acrobat to read it - on high-tech trends, with references to the communications sector, B2B and B2C - and this quote from his newsletter -
"COMMENT: An inflation scare on Friday pummeled stock prices. A global synchronized boom and tight labor markets could put some upward pressure on costs and prices. But, I expect offsetting deflationary pressures from productivity, technology, and lower oil prices. Investors are starting to
worry about a series of rate hikes this year. I still expect just two 25-bp rate hikes during the first half of the year. My range for the Dow is 10000-13000 this year, with the bottom end likely to be tested in the next few months. The top end is my target for yearend. A flight to quality and talk of paying off the federal debt pushed bond yields lower notwithstanding renewed inflation jitters. My range this year is 6%-7% and 5%-6% in 2001."
Here's the high-tech report, fascinating - record highs, low inventory, high capacity utilization -
yardeni.com
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