itss - it's all about perceptions.
Most biotechs seeking to enter the cancer market do so via an orphan indication, FAP in the case of CLPA. What is important in assessing future potential is the market beyond that entry indication. What CLPA have demonstrated through studies of how their drugs acts, is a cellular pathway by which cancer cells immortalize themselves. This has been an elusive issue in tumor cell biology. It was a serendipitous discovery on the part of CLPA, but most discoveries come that way. The company has been hoarding news pending FDA approval on many issues like future pharma partnerships, the complete analysis of the PIII prostate trial, and so on. There has been some further accumulatuion by some big houses, and doubtless coverage by names with more weight than Janney will follow approval. Many on Wall St have remained on the sidelines after last year's debacle, and I suspect (big caveat) that their entry after approval will negate the usual biotech slumber that often follows approval. Shorts are very patient, but seeing heavy guns lining up behind the longs will not encourage them to stick around. They look for arbitrage opportunities in small companies with mostly retail investors (e.g., SNRS). That scenario for CLPA is changing. Market timing is not my specialty either, but I don't think the shorts in this case will stick around long after approval, nor do I see a big pullback. Remember, this ran to 29 last year prior to PIII FAP results, and FDA approval with the release of detailed PIII prostate data could blow the lid off it. The PIII sporadic polyp trial completes in March... |
