"Why should the squeeze come now if it didn't come then?"
To an extent (I believe) we have seen a portion of the
short squeeze played out, notably up till reporting date
(jan 15th) when the stock hit $16 from $9 the short position was actually slightly higher than at dec 15th, so what happened? My guess a combination of increased retail and institutional buying pressure combined with retail short covering was kept at least partially under control by further institutional shorting preventing a collapse (if thats the word) of the price to last years highs.
After that it's anybody's guess. It was noticable that the
first day AFTER short position count day, we had our highest
jump, this COULD have been institutional covering kicking in
or simply retail pressure from the word on CLPA spreading
like wildfire over the weekends as we know it has. I'm inclined to believe the latter for reasons I'll explain in a moment.
So in all honesty, nobody knows for sure the current short
position, Since 11mm shares have traded since count day
it could be anywhere from 0 to even greater than the 5mm
at last count. My guess is that it is slightly higher again
about 6mm, why? because the institutional shorting was always done in the belief the drug would fail fda approval, if they TRULY believe that, then logic says it only makes
more sense for them to be increasing their position as the
price builds. Even if that logic fails, it would not make
sense for them to cave in and admit defeat before they knew
the fda answer, they are holding out for the fda result, doing whatever it takes to keep the price under control till
then. And as we all know 'whatever it takes' means shorting
further!
So (IMHO) when the great day comes (next week?), the best of the short squeeze is yet to be seen.
"Rick's question about which analysts are projecting what sort of revenue hits the nail on the head"
Er well not really!! They dont call them penguins for nothing. Most will not take the risk of recommending a
company before their first NDA approval nomatter HOW much
they believe they will be successfull. I know for a fact
that several large institutions are watching this one closely and of at least one large one that has a 'buy recommendation' waiting to go to press once fda approval is through. I have also heard (but this has not been substantiated) that some of these institutions waiting to pile in already own stock that they have loaned to the shorts, they will call that stock back in when they issue
the buy recommendation and thus spring a bear trap on the
shorts!!
"The argument that FAP is too small an indication to be worthwhile has more pungent immediacy than talk about off-label"
You HAVE to be kidding! the science of this compound implies
it is probably the GREATEST hope for a GENERIC cure and preventative treatment for cancer the planet has ever seen!!
Addressing an orphan condition for the NDA was a smart move
on the companies part, it gives a much higher chance of getting FDA approval and brings the drug to market sooner. BUT! the real immediate revenue is in the level it will be
used offlabel. We already know from doctors posting on the
RagingBull thread that it WILL be used off label, the question in everyones mind is 'how much?'. The answer seems
straight forward to me, Oncologists will make their usual case by case risk/benefit assessment, Aptosyn is VERY low risk, most of todays treatments are high risk. So in accute cases it will almost certainly be used extensivly! With widespread offlabel usage, the efficacy and safety will rapidly become established. As that happens the huge
potential of this monster will start to sink in with the
penguins. By then it will cost them a fortune to get into
this stock!
As nueroguy said, this company is hoarding news, their
timing is GREAT with lots of further trial results to follow
I believe this will be one biotech that doesnt follow the
post fda approval trend.
All in all, the guys down at Avalon and their ilk have been
holding this company in a stretched catapult for several weeks now, their arms are aching and they keep trying to
stretch it further hoping it will break. Next week the fda
is going to cut off their fingers! THEN we will see how high
this baby will go! Many believe it will reach escape velocity!
To the moon...
TFDW (Know that!)
regards
kh |
