Hi Mary Beth. I noticed that at least one of the analysts who follow AXC has lowered the 1998 (12/98) estimate to 0.88 from 1.01, an obvious decline of $0.13. I was somewhat depressed at first at this, but I have come around to thinking that this may indeed be good. First, it's pert near speculation in many ways to say you're going to hit Pike's Peak from Philadelphia for certain, but at least saying you can get to Colorado is somewhat more credible. Also, a lowering is of course easier to achieve. On the negative side, I wonder who it was (Dabney-Resnick, PA Merchant, or RedChip) and WHY? I hope there are credible reasons and not just an educated guess all by itself.
I was fortunate enough to get a PA Merchant Group report on AXC quite some time ago. I will try and buy a report from Dabney and RCR to try and learn their current viewpoints. Also, as we all probably know, these are venture capital and investment banking firms and not real Street analysts (how well we all wish they were). Also, I understand that they have models for determining these estimates. I'd love to know what these models look like, especially, as Karen says, these analysts never get the numbers from her or from anyone at AXC - to her knowledge!
Anyway, I, too, am glad to see some talk again. I was trying to not look at AXC quite as often (as I think Lisa said she was doing). In my case, though, I don't quite succeed!
Best regards,
Ron |
