Re: Forbes article. I have no beef with the contention that Replay is far behind TiVo, due to Replay 1) avoiding the marketing event and capital associated with an IPO many months ago, 2) marketing VP saying this christmas was not important (unbelievable) and say they will have a marketing blitz only the next year. 3) fewer partnerships among technology and media companies and retailers and 4) Replay's phobia of invading consumer privacy, precluding personalization (hence the 'personal' in PTV/PVR) features.
But replay/tivo being in trouble in their "current iteration"? I never thought that these PVR boxes would be standalone entities forever, but rather subsumed into digital set top boxes that offer variegated features. But would that really jeopardize TiVo, don't you think they are well aware of this? This is one reason why TiVo has repeatedly de-emphasized the box but stressed the service (and diversifying into VOD). I'm not sure about Replay, which does not even charge subscription fees but ties in everything w/ the box in an upfront lump sum.
- Netconductor.com
Glenn Petersen wrote:
[Forbes article excerpt]
Despite this kind of powerhouse backing, the company has lagged behind its primary competitor, Sunnyvale,
Calif.-based TiVo (nasdaq: TIVO). TiVo went public in September, raising $88 million and today has a market
value of $1.3 billion. TiVo, which makes a comparable product to ReplayTV?s, faces similar challenges, but not
only has it been consistently more aggressive in marketing and deployment; it has also forged strong alliances with
industry leaders like America Online (nyse: AOL), Liberate Technologies (nasdaq: LBRT) and Blockbuster (nyse:
BBI).
ReplayTV has sold only 6,000 of its units to date, all of which have been subsidized by the company. In its filing
with the Securities and Exchange Commission the company reported net losses for 1998 of $3.3 million.
"There is no question that in a broadband world when everyone has the next-generation digital boxes from General
Instrument (nyse: GIC) and Scientific-Atlanta (nyse: SFA) that TiVo and Replay in their current iteration could be
in a lot of trouble," said Cynthia Brumfield of Broadband Intelligence in Bethesda, Md. But Brumfield also pointed
out that to the extent that either ReplayTV or TiVo could parlay its first-mover advantage into another dimension of
the business it could be in good shape. "You have to believe that people within the company are aware of the
situation they?re in and are actively thinking about how they could evolve," she said.
The two best ways for these companies to do that would be to ally themselves directly with a major set-top box
maker or, better still, with a television maker. Just as WebTV did with Microsoft, they could sell their software to a
larger partner, and it could in turn then be easily replicated into their products.
"A lot of visionaries in the set-top box business like John Malone and others who provide entertainment services
would rather be rid of all these boxes and have everything in one unit," said Brumfield. "It will take a while for
digital cable and satellite to get to that point, though, and that gives Replay and TiVo enough time either to develop
a strategy that extends their market or to seek a partner." |
