Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 304.84

-0.8%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Donald B. Fuller who wrote (33929)	1/31/2000 4:23:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Donald, I certainly respect your approach. However, regarding my suggestion to sell half when it doubles, I would not be upset if it quadrupled. Rather I would be happy to have an opportunity to sell half again. The advantage of this is having more cash to invest when it eventually tanks. While your method would probably have resulted in greater gains during the long bull market which we have had, can you really be sure that the next bear market is not around the corner? Your method requires that you either successfully predict that the bull market will continue, or be willing to wait out a bear market, which can take years. My method is less dependent on successfully predicting the direction of the market, and considering that the market is at historically high P/E ratios at a time that the Fed is aggressively trying to slow down the rate of economic growth, I think that's worth something.

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