Elmer, Re: "Tony, did you notice Bob Brinker is now calling for a Bear market?"
Yes I heard by PM from one of our posters two or three weeks ago, and went to the library to read his latest newsletter and get it straight from the horse's mouth. At first I thought, when wondering why he was calling it, he may feel a need to call something, since he hadn't in the 3 or 4 years I've been following him. In other words, why would his subscribers pay for his newsletter if he "just stays bullish." For example, he called nothing in '98 (remember the 2 big dips in Aug. and Oct.) and took a lot of flak on the air for that. Next, I thought, maybe he's right. Now, who knows? I personally did nothing, and, since his call I'm still up, thanks mostly to Intel, AMAT and LSI.
Actually, what his call was 2 or 3 weeks ago, was that he called for his followers to sell 60% of their equities, so I don't think he's calling for a bear market. A bear would call for exit, stage right, I think. I think he said there was an as good, or better chance of a 20% down as for a 5% up.
I stopped listening to his show, believe it or not, because I couldn't stand his frequent dumping on Intel, and his continually bringing back the Bears super bowl slaughter of the Patriots on his debut show in Jan. 1986. Pretty silly, huh? Well, many other reasons, like the guy is so full of himself. Double digit hatsize wouldn't surprise me at all. He also is a Wilshire total stock market pusher, and his call on companies like Microsoft and Cisco has been hold since I've been listening. And, of course, "Intel is a great trading stock." Tell that to most of us here. If you have a Xtal ball, yes, but Intel often moves up when least expected, so how the heck do you time it. So, he's of no use to me with regard to essentially all of my investing.
I think Cynthia Oti, who's on radio out here, is excellent as an investment advisor. I would hope she'd move up, maybe become national.
More than I thought I'd write on this.
Tony |
