TTOSBT, No sweat.
I wish all those who crawled my frame at one time or another had been as easy to bear.
Also, you have reason to be upset. I attended a Borland dog and pony show up in Monroe, New Jersey (or some such place) years ago. I jumped in at 50, rode up to 80 and got out at 75 on the way down.
Thereafter, I got in several more times when it looked like Borland (later, Inprise) was going to reverse its fortunes. The last time (prior to my current involvement) was just before they bought that outfit (what the heck was its name, Visi-something or other, wasn't it). It bumped up around 13 or so, and went straight into the tank.
Through these (now, seemingly) ill-considered expressions of faith in Borland/Inprise, I managed to give back everything I made on that first move, and a fair amount more. So, I very clearly understand the point you are making. Inprise's execution has left a lot to be desired.
In spite of the ugly history, though, I'd like to suggest that several things are different this time around.
First, and foremost, is the anti-trust case. There is a reasonable chance that Judge Jackson is going to put the brakes on MicroSoft's predatory tactics. This will open the door for other houses (not the least of which is Inprise) to compete. This is no small thing. Didn't MicroSoft do everything it could to prevent competitor's software from running on the Windows platform? Do you remember the slogan, "The product's not done 'til Lotus won't run". Didn't MicroSoft, for example, commandeer a file extension Borland had chosen to identify a data set, and use it to invoke a MicroSoft product, effectively destroying the Borland product? (Borland was not the only software house ruined by these tactics, it just happens to be the subject of this message.) If Judge Jackson can prevent such outrageous practices, we will all live better.
Second, is the apparent rise of Linux. Linux offers a potentially stable platform for third-party software, regardless of what happens with the monopoly case. I'm not certain that Linux will take over the world, but it has a better chance of doing so than anything else on the horizon. An important feature of the Linux revolution is that it is not solely a U.S. phenomenon. It seems to have pretty good momentum outside the U.S., too.
Third, for Linux to succeed, it need's applications. The lack of Linux applications is one of the loudest horns blown by MicroSoft supporters. Inprise seems to be racing to fill this need. Their products are well-respected, not just in the U.S. but in Europe and Australia as well. Corel is trying to fill Linux's need for software in the so-called productivity software area, but there is an immense amount of mission-critical software that is begging for a stable platform (my own software which handles the operations and documentation for a $100M steamship line, and still runs on DOS, is a case in point.)
Fourth, is the new management provided by Mr. Fuller. I can not imagine that the decision to off-load the database operation was an easy one, or that it went down well within the organization. As close as I, a complete outsider, can tell, the company has been clearing the decks and changing direction. This is a very difficult task, particularly in a company with as much history as Borland/Inprise has.
TTOSBT, I am not smart enough to know how all this is going to turn out. High-risk investing is, basically, making a bet on the future. In my opinion, Inprise is a reasonable choice. That doesn't mean I won't change my mind tomorrow. I've done so several times in the past, and I will do so again if it seems to me that Inprise's chances of succeeding are decreasing. In the meantime, I'm going to give management a little lee-way, and see what happens. I really hope that the Linux shows in New York and Paris will give us a boost. If not, maybe the flow of information out of the shows will give me a better insight into the wisdom of my current investment choices.
In the interest of full disclosure, let me say that I also hold Corel ... in spite of my reservations about the trustworthiness of their management ... because I believe they, too, are on the right track.
Fred |
