It promises to be interesting tomorrow.
Bush, McCain Down to the Wire in N.H.
NewsMax.com
January 30, 2000
The New Hampshire primary Tuesday is where both Republican and Democratic national front-runners lock up their presidential nominations – or not.
As the hour of decision draws closer, the race in each party's primary grows ever tighter – or not.
It all depends on whether opinion polls are to be believed, and almost all are saying it's too close to call between Republican George W. Bush and John McCain and between Democrats Bill Bradley and Al Gore.
A Reuters news service poll released Sunday shows McCain barely leading Bush, by an almost meaningless two points – 38 percent to 36 percent.
Two days earlier, a Fox News poll had McCain ahead by eight points – 41 percent to 33 percent.
But is Bush still gaining? Or has he peaked?
The Reuters poll had Gore ahead of Bradley by seven points. Only two days before, Gore had him down by 11.
Most polls pronounce three entrants in the GOP primary out of it. The Fox News poll gave Steve Forbes 16 percent, Alan Keyes 8 percent and Gary Bauer 1 percent.
Those polls could be right on the money. They certainly have been in the past – but not every time in New Hampshire.
That's one of the always engaging, often exasperating characteristics of the nation's first primary. Election results in the Granite State do not always turn out as advertised.
New Hampshire is no place to bet the farm.
What are the vagaries at work in this contest?
• Undecideds are numerous and unpredictable.
Almost a third of New Hampshire voters polled over the weekend said they still could very well change their minds and vote a different way.
But they wouldn't say which way.
One out of three is an astonishing number to be undecided.
• New Hampshire voters are one of a kind.
Many have a notorious "Oh, yeah?" approach to politics, waiting till the very last minute to make up their minds, often as they knock the snow off their boots and step into the polling places.
They tend to draw a bead on front-runners with the same cool calculation as they stalk deer.
They are not characteristically fickle, when it comes to party affiliation. They toe their party's line, frequently punishing candidates who don't.
Try to map how that shakes out this year in the Democratic primary, in the Republican primary.
• Independents are the wildest of cards.
They are what torque election results as well as opinion polls in New Hampshire, where the rules allow Independents to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary.
A lot of those Independents are expected to vote for McCain or Bradley. Yes, but which?
Or will they decide they really want to be independent, and go for Forbes? Or Keyes? Or Bauer?
Whom does that hurt the most?
• Little wonder, then, that the leading candidates – in the opinion polls – are running out of patience as the hour glass is running out of sand.
In both parties, the perceived leaders are firing late-hour salvos.
Bush is upping the ante on his proposed $483-billion tax cut, now that there is another $1 trillion forecast for the federal budget surplus.
McCain is making integrity an issue, saying he, not Bush, can make Gore cringe in the general election.
Bradley is after Gore on the same count, getting tougher – but too late?
Gore is complaining Bradley has turned negative.
Their backers are going to the phones, passing the literature, ringing the door bells. In this small state, few voters are likely to escape the intense canvassing.
• Then there are the personal touches.
Bush arranged for a former president and first lady, his father and mother, to drop in on New Hampshire and speak up for him.
The only statewide newspaper, the conservative Manchester Union-Leader, gave what it labeled "an almost endorsement" of Bradley over Gore. The pros are still scratching their heads as to how Democrats who don't especially care for the paper's editorial slant will react.
Finally, Keyes received an endorsement from David Schippers, the chief impeachment prosecutor in the House of Representatives impeachment of the president. How long runs the memory of New Hampshire voters, how deep their feelings about Bill Clinton?
All those imponderables are why the only polls that count in New Hampshire are where an expected 35l,000 voters will cast their ballots on Tuesday
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