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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: Curlton Latts who wrote (24091)1/31/2000 9:31:00 PM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (2) of 25960
 
All in all, I thought a very good CC. At first I was deeply concerned about the "new" capacity update. My fears were ameliorated.

There was very good news on margins. In the past I thought they might get to 45% this year. Guidance was 48%, which means it's likely. Also, the 30% tax rate projected for the year is much better than the old 38%.

If their sequential sales increases for the rest of the year at 20%, 17.5%, 15%, and 12.5% (I know this translates to more than a 35%-45% guided increase, but it certainly seems doable given the recent cap ex announcements and CYMI's book/bill), we'll do $472 mil in sales this year. (Also don't forget no one is more conservative with projections than these guys.)

I used 31.5 mil for shares outstanding and came up with EPS for Y2K of $2.47. (I don't know why the shares outstanding went up by 1.0 mil this Q. No bonds were redeemed.)

Anyway, we should be moving substantially higher over the next few days. We are going to start getting 2001 EPS rollouts close to $3, which will turn out woefully low.
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